Spatio-Temporal Prediction of the Epidemic Spread of Dangerous Pathogens Using Machine Learning Methods

Real-time identification of the occurrence of dangerous pathogens is of crucial importance for the rapid execution of countermeasures. For this purpose, spatial and temporal predictions of the spread of such pathogens are indispensable. The R package papros developed by the authors offers an environment in which both spatial and temporal predictions can be made, based on local data using various deterministic, geostatistical regionalisation, and machine learning methods. The approach is presented using the example of a crops infection by fungal pathogens, which can substantially reduce the yield if not treated in good time. The situation is made more difficult by the fact that it is particularly difficult to predict the behaviour of wind-dispersed pathogens, such as powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici). To forecast pathogen development and spatial dispersal, a modelling process scheme was developed using the aforementioned R package, which combines regionalisation and machine learning techniques. It enables the prediction of the probability of yield- relevant infestation events for an entire federal state in northern Germany at a daily time scale. To run the models, weather and climate information are required, as is knowledge of the pathogen biology. Once fitted to the pathogen, only weather and climate information are necessary to predict such events, with an overall accuracy of 68% in the case of powdery mildew at a regional scale. Thereby, 91% of the observed powdery mildew events are predicted

Location Modeling of Final Palaeolithic Sites in Northern Germany

Location modeling, both inductive and deductive, is widely used in archaeology to predict or investigate the spatial distribution of sites. The commonality among these approaches is their consideration of only spatial effects of the first order (i.e., the interaction of the locations with the site characteristics). Second-order effects (i.e., the interaction of locations with each other) are rarely considered. We introduce a deductive approach to investigating such second-order effects using linguistic hypotheses about settling behavior in the Final Palaeolithic. A Poisson process was used to simulate a point distribution using expert knowledge of two distinct hunter–gatherer groups, namely, reindeer hunters and elk hunters. The modeled points and point densities were compared with the actual finds. The G-, F-, and K-function, which allow for the identification of second-order effects of varying intensity for different periods, were applied. The results reveal differences between the two investigated groups, with the reindeer hunters showing location-related interaction patterns, indicating a spatial memory of the preferred locations over an extended period of time. Overall, this paper shows that second-order effects occur in the geographical modeling of archaeological finds and should be taken into account by using approaches such as the one presented in this paper

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurement of the top quark mass using charged particles in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurement of the Splitting Function in &ITpp &ITand Pb-Pb Collisions at root&ITsNN&IT=5.02 TeV

Data from heavy ion collisions suggest that the evolution of a parton shower is modified by interactions with the color charges in the dense partonic medium created in these collisions, but it is not known where in the shower evolution the modifications occur. The momentum ratio of the two leading partons, resolved as subjets, provides information about the parton shower evolution. This substructure observable, known as the splitting function, reflects the process of a parton splitting into two other partons and has been measured for jets with transverse momentum between 140 and 500 GeV, in pp and PbPb collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV per nucleon pair. In central PbPb collisions, the splitting function indicates a more unbalanced momentum ratio, compared to peripheral PbPb and pp collisions.. The measurements are compared to various predictions from event generators and analytical calculations.Peer reviewe

Inclusive search for supersymmetry using razor variables in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for anomalous couplings in boosted WW/WZ -> l nu q(q)over-bar production in proton-proton collisions at root s=8TeV

Peer reviewe

Inclusive Search for a Highly Boosted Higgs Boson Decaying to a Bottom Quark-Antiquark Pair

© 2018 CERN. An inclusive search for the standard model Higgs boson (H) produced with large transverse momentum (pT) and decaying to a bottom quark-antiquark pair (bb) is performed using a data set of pp collisions at s=13 TeV collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb-1. A highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs boson decaying to bb is reconstructed as a single, large radius jet, and it is identified using jet substructure and dedicated b tagging techniques. The method is validated with Z→bb decays. The Z→bb process is observed for the first time in the single-jet topology with a local significance of 5.1 standard deviations (5.8 expected). For a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV, an excess of events above the expected background is observed (expected) with a local significance of 1.5 (0.7) standard deviations. The measured cross section times branching fraction for production via gluon fusion of H→bb with reconstructed pT > 450 GeV and in the pseudorapidity range -2.5 < η < 2.5 is 74±48(stat)-10+17(syst) fb, which is consistent within uncertainties with the standard model prediction